Why I dropped out of uni 4 hours before the census date

18 months after deciding to take a learning gap year, I re-enrolled at uni, lasted 4 weeks, and on census day, I officially withdrew 4 hours before the due date after writing a one-pager to explain my reasoning.

Before then, I had been thinking about it for a long time, changing my mind every couple of weeks. I spoke to dozens of people, looked for advice on the internet and read every possible “Advice for an ambitious 19-year-old” blog I could find, read into decision-making frameworks, and nothing helped.

This is the thought process I created on the day (with ChatGPT) to help me think through it.

(Census Day – 6:13 pm)

Step 1: List the goals of this exercise

1. Choose the right kind of risk: Dropping out and staying in uni both hold different risks. I wanted to be aware of the risks and choose the one I’m willing to take.
2. Regret minimisation: When I’m 80 years old, which option would I regret the least?
3. Choose what’s most aligned with my long-term goals.

Step 2: List the options

1. Continue working full-time & full-time study
2. Work full-time & part-time study
3. Work full-time & drop out of uni

For me, I had to work full-time due to circumstances. You might not be the same.

Step 3: For each option list

1. Opportunity cost: What would I lose had I put that time into something else?
2. Reversibility/Irreversibility: Is this option permanent, or can I change my mind later?
3. Best-case scenario + % probability: If everything went to plan, what do I imagine the best case scenario to be in detail and the likelihood of that happening?
4. Potential upside
5. Worst-case scenario + % probability: If everything went to shit, what do I imagine the worst case scenario to be and the likelihood of that happening?
6. Potential losses
7. Conviction: How do I feel, 1–10, about this option?

I wrote for each option:

IF work & full-time study:

Graduate by the end of 2026 – in 2.5 years

Opportunity cost: Lose 2.5 years of time that could’ve been put into working or building something

Reversible/Irreversible: Irreversible (lose time I’ll never get back, even if I decide to drop out later)

Best case scenario + %probability:

• Graduate with a BSc (mathematical physics), use that to get into aerospace engineering postgraduate in the US (Stanford, MIT), study whilst working—get a $100K entry-level engineering job in SF in 2029 (25yo) [20%]
• Make enough money to keep house to split, build & sell >$$ (+$$ in 3 years time) [10%]

Potential upsides:

• Have a credible degree
• Have the opportunity to do a Master’s/PhD
• Learn things I’m interested in, my degree
• Meet “like-minded” people in my degree

Worst-case scenario + %probability:

• Burn out from full-time work and study, get bad grades at university and lose my job, and it launches into a breakout trajectory [60%]
• Forced to sell house now = $$ (-$$) [40%]

Potential losses:

• 2.5 years of time that could’ve been put into making more impact at work, side-projects/learning how to build things
• Not learning how to build to a degree, only how to pass physics/maths exams
• Lose social, sleep, exercise, + a lot more stress
• Won’t be on campus at all to meet “like-minded” people
• Lose potential $$ from house
• Lose my job, don’t get promotion + responsibility/equity/salary increase as the company goes on a breakout trajectory
• Lose >$$ from equity

Conviction: 1/10

IF work & part-time study:

Graduate 2027/2028 – 3–4 years

Opportunity cost: Lose 4 years that could’ve been put to work

Reversible/Irreversible: Irreversible (lose time I’ll never get back, even if I decide to drop out later)

Best case scenario + %probability:

• Graduate with a BSc—mathematical physics—use that to get into aerospace engineering postgraduate in the US (Stanford, MIT), study whilst working—get a $100K entry-level engineering job in SF in 2031 (27yo) [40%]
• Make enough money to keep house to split, build & sell >$$ (+$$ in 3–4 years) [20%]

Potential upside:

• Have a credible degree
• Have the opportunity to do a Master’s/PhD
• Learn things I’m interested in, my degree
• Meet “like-minded” people in my degree

Worst case-scenario + %probability:

• Burn out from full-time work and study, get bad grades at university and lose my job, and it launches into a breakout trajectory ($B’s valuation) [40%]
• Forced to sell house now = (-$$) [30%]

Potential losses:

• 4 years that could’ve been put into making more impact at work, side-projects/learning how to build things
• Not learning how to build to a degree, only how to pass physics/maths exams
• Lose social, sleep, exercise, + a lot more stress
• Won’t be on campus at all to meet “like-minded” people
• Lose potential $$ from house
• Lose my job, don’t get promotion + responsibility/equity/salary increase as the company goes on a breakout trajectory
• Lose >$$ from equity

Conviction: 3/10

IF work & drop out:

Opportunity cost: limited

Reversible/Irreversible: Reversible (can always go back)

Best case scenario + %probability:

• Stay at co for >3–5 years, get promotions, more salary & equity, as the company goes from 0 → $B’s company, start my own company, join C-suite in SF startup, or high position in consulting/VC etc for $300K+ in 2028 (24yo) [95%]
• Make enough money to keep house to split, build & sell >$$ (+$$ in 3 years) [80%]

Potential upside:

• 3–5 years of compounding & learning in a startup, and making the impact I want
• Increase salary/equity
• $$ equity
• $$ from selling
• Time to learn & build things I’m interested in
• Build a crazy network with startup people

Worst case-scenario + %probability:

• co goes bankrupt [5%]

Potential losses:

• Don’t have the credibility of a degree
• Can’t do a Master’s/PhD
• Not forced to learn things in structured degrees/exams
• Won’t meet “like-minded” people in my degree

Conviction: 9–10/10

Step 4: Journal on the above

1. Why did I go back to uni in the first place?
2. What decision is most likely to put me on the path to doing something great?
3. What would I regret the least when I’m 80 years old?

(8:30 pm – 2h 17 min later)

Step 5: “Dropping out is the asymmetric bet”

In other words, there was a capped loss (that I was willing to take) with asymmetric winnings for that risk. It had the highest EV.

Looking back, I created a lot of BS in my head, and this process was pretty arbitrary. But I don’t care and have no regrets 10 months later (as of writing).